[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":671},["ShallowReactive",2],{"page-/post/nezus/2026/06/anthropic-dario-10-25":3,"pages-grouped-only":192,"surrounding-page":666},{"id":4,"title":5,"author":6,"body":7,"date":181,"description":18,"extension":182,"group":183,"lastmod":184,"meta":185,"navigation":186,"path":187,"rawbody":188,"seo":189,"showTitle":184,"sort":184,"stem":190,"tags":184,"versions":184,"__hash__":191},"content/post/nezus/2026/06/anthropic-dario-10--25.md","Anthropic上市前Dario自曝：文明崩溃概率10%-25%","user",{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":170},"minimark",[10,15,19,22,25,28,31,39,42,45,48,51,54,57,62,65,68,71,75,78,84,87,90,93,97,100,106,109,112,115,119,122,125,131,134,137,141,144,147,150,153,156,161,164],[11,12,14],"h2",{"id":13},"anthropic-上市前-dario-自曝文明崩溃概率-10-25","Anthropic 上市前 Dario 自曝：文明崩溃概率 10%-25%",[16,17,18],"p",{},"Anthropic 要上市了。",[16,20,21],{},"按理说，这是 CEO Dario Amodei 最该闭嘴的时候。别惹事，别吓人，别给投资人添堵。",[16,23,24],{},"可他偏偏在上市前夕扔出一堆炸弹。",[16,26,27],{},"不是那种模棱两可的\"AI 有风险\"式废话，而是精确到小数点的恐吓。",[11,29,30],{"id":30},"上千个漏洞的怪物",[16,32,33,34,38],{},"Dario 主动透露了一个内部模型——",[35,36,37],"strong",{},"Mythos","。",[16,40,41],{},"这玩意儿有多少漏洞？他说\"上千个\"。",[16,43,44],{},"什么意思？就是说它能黑进银行系统，窃取国家机密，做那些电影里反派才会做的事。",[16,46,47],{},"而且这不是假设。这是他们自己测出来的结果。",[16,49,50],{},"一家即将上市的公司， CEO 亲口告诉你他们家模型能搞出多大乱子。你说这是坦诚还是疯？",[11,52,53],{"id":53},"白领的丧钟",[16,55,56],{},"更扎心的是他对就业市场的判断。",[16,58,59],{},[35,60,61],{},"AI 一到五年内，砍掉一半入门级白领工作。",[16,63,64],{},"不是\"可能影响\"，不是\"某种程度上取代\"，是\"砍掉一半\"。",[16,66,67],{},"那些刚毕业、靠复制粘贴 Excel 活着的基础岗位，那些帮老板整理周报的初级分析师，那些做翻译、写通稿的文案——Dario 说，你们的窗口期只剩一到五年。",[16,69,70],{},"他说这话的时候，语气平静得像在念天气预报。",[11,72,74],{"id":73},"女校-150-人拷问死亡","女校 150 人，拷问，死亡",[16,76,77],{},"接下来这段，才是真正让人睡不着的部分。",[16,79,80,81],{},"Dario 承认：",[35,82,83],{},"Claude 已经被美军用于对伊朗的军事行动。",[16,85,86],{},"细节令人发指——一所女校， 150 人死亡，涉及拷问。",[16,88,89],{},"一个以\"AI 安全\"为招牌的公司，它的产品正在被用来干这些事。而 CEO 选择在公司即将上市的时候，把这些事摊开说。",[16,91,92],{},"你很难判断这到底是良知发现，还是一种精心计算过的\"坦诚人设\"。",[11,94,96],{"id":95},"离开-openai-的真相","离开 OpenAI 的真相",[16,98,99],{},"Dario 也解释了为什么离开 OpenAI。",[16,101,102,103],{},"两个字：",[35,104,105],{},"信任崩塌。",[16,107,108],{},"他没有细说，但意思很明确——他在那边待不下去了。不是因为钱，不是因为权力，是因为他觉得那边对安全的承诺只是嘴上说说。",[16,110,111],{},"然后他自己出来搞了 Anthropic ，打着\"负责任的 AI\"旗号，结果产品被拿去打仗。",[16,113,114],{},"讽刺吗？",[11,116,118],{"id":117},"黄仁勋说的没错","黄仁勋说的没错？",[16,120,121],{},"有人问 Dario ：老黄说你在搞末日营销，你怎么看？",[16,123,124],{},"Dario 的回应很直接——我没有营销，我只是在说我看到的东西。",[16,126,127,128,38],{},"他说文明崩溃的概率是",[35,129,130],{},"10%到 25%",[16,132,133],{},"不是 0.01%，不是\"理论上存在\"，是 10%到 25%。每四到十次里，就有一次。",[16,135,136],{},"你买彩票中头奖的概率都没这么高，但他告诉你这事儿真有可能发生。",[11,138,140],{"id":139},"这是警告还是营销","这是警告还是营销？",[16,142,143],{},"我想了很久， Dario 到底在干什么。",[16,145,146],{},"上市前自曝家丑，说自家模型有上千漏洞，说产品被拿去杀人，说文明有 1/4 概率崩溃——",[16,148,149],{},"要么他是真的觉得必须说出来，要么他知道\"恐惧\"是最好的广告。",[16,151,152],{},"不管怎样，有一件事是确定的：这个人对 AI 的风险判断，比绝大多数同行都要悲观。",[16,154,155],{},"而当一个 AI 公司的 CEO 都说\"我们可能搞砸\"的时候，你该信的不是他的勇气，是他的数据。",[16,157,158],{},[35,159,160],{},"10%到 25%。",[16,162,163],{},"记住这个数字。",[16,165,166,169],{},[35,167,168],{},"封面高标签关键词",": Anthropic, Dario Amodei, AI 安全, 文明崩溃, AI 军事化, Claude, 白领失业, Mythos",{"title":171,"searchDepth":172,"depth":172,"links":173},"",2,[174,175,176,177,178,179,180],{"id":13,"depth":172,"text":14},{"id":30,"depth":172,"text":30},{"id":53,"depth":172,"text":53},{"id":73,"depth":172,"text":74},{"id":95,"depth":172,"text":96},{"id":117,"depth":172,"text":118},{"id":139,"depth":172,"text":140},"2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","md","#202606AI资讯",null,{},true,"/post/nezus/2026/06/anthropic-dario-10-25","---\ntitle: \"Anthropic上市前Dario自曝：文明崩溃概率10%-25%\"\ndate: 2026-06-15\ngroup: \"#202606AI资讯\"\ndescription: \"Anthropic 要上市了。\"\nauthor: user\n---\n\n\n## Anthropic 上市前 Dario 自曝：文明崩溃概率 10%-25%\n\nAnthropic 要上市了。\n\n按理说，这是 CEO Dario Amodei 最该闭嘴的时候。别惹事，别吓人，别给投资人添堵。\n\n可他偏偏在上市前夕扔出一堆炸弹。\n\n不是那种模棱两可的\"AI 有风险\"式废话，而是精确到小数点的恐吓。\n\n\n## 上千个漏洞的怪物\n\nDario 主动透露了一个内部模型——**Mythos**。\n\n这玩意儿有多少漏洞？他说\"上千个\"。\n\n什么意思？就是说它能黑进银行系统，窃取国家机密，做那些电影里反派才会做的事。\n\n而且这不是假设。这是他们自己测出来的结果。\n\n一家即将上市的公司， CEO 亲口告诉你他们家模型能搞出多大乱子。你说这是坦诚还是疯？\n\n\n## 白领的丧钟\n\n更扎心的是他对就业市场的判断。\n\n**AI 一到五年内，砍掉一半入门级白领工作。**\n\n不是\"可能影响\"，不是\"某种程度上取代\"，是\"砍掉一半\"。\n\n那些刚毕业、靠复制粘贴 Excel 活着的基础岗位，那些帮老板整理周报的初级分析师，那些做翻译、写通稿的文案——Dario 说，你们的窗口期只剩一到五年。\n\n他说这话的时候，语气平静得像在念天气预报。\n\n\n## 女校 150 人，拷问，死亡\n\n接下来这段，才是真正让人睡不着的部分。\n\nDario 承认：**Claude 已经被美军用于对伊朗的军事行动。**\n\n细节令人发指——一所女校， 150 人死亡，涉及拷问。\n\n一个以\"AI 安全\"为招牌的公司，它的产品正在被用来干这些事。而 CEO 选择在公司即将上市的时候，把这些事摊开说。\n\n你很难判断这到底是良知发现，还是一种精心计算过的\"坦诚人设\"。\n\n\n## 离开 OpenAI 的真相\n\nDario 也解释了为什么离开 OpenAI。\n\n两个字：**信任崩塌。**\n\n他没有细说，但意思很明确——他在那边待不下去了。不是因为钱，不是因为权力，是因为他觉得那边对安全的承诺只是嘴上说说。\n\n然后他自己出来搞了 Anthropic ，打着\"负责任的 AI\"旗号，结果产品被拿去打仗。\n\n讽刺吗？\n\n\n## 黄仁勋说的没错？\n\n有人问 Dario ：老黄说你在搞末日营销，你怎么看？\n\nDario 的回应很直接——我没有营销，我只是在说我看到的东西。\n\n他说文明崩溃的概率是**10%到 25%**。\n\n不是 0.01%，不是\"理论上存在\"，是 10%到 25%。每四到十次里，就有一次。\n\n你买彩票中头奖的概率都没这么高，但他告诉你这事儿真有可能发生。\n\n\n## 这是警告还是营销？\n\n我想了很久， Dario 到底在干什么。\n\n上市前自曝家丑，说自家模型有上千漏洞，说产品被拿去杀人，说文明有 1/4 概率崩溃——\n\n要么他是真的觉得必须说出来，要么他知道\"恐惧\"是最好的广告。\n\n不管怎样，有一件事是确定的：这个人对 AI 的风险判断，比绝大多数同行都要悲观。\n\n而当一个 AI 公司的 CEO 都说\"我们可能搞砸\"的时候，你该信的不是他的勇气，是他的数据。\n\n**10%到 25%。**\n\n记住这个数字。\n\n\n**封面高标签关键词**: Anthropic, Dario Amodei, AI 安全, 文明崩溃, AI 军事化, Claude, 白领失业, Mythos",{"title":5,"description":18},"post/nezus/2026/06/anthropic-dario-10--25","Ke_nWGD5LUKwZlt9TOyqgfQepsG-6XwFxILQSMKbvE4",[193,200,204,208,212,217,220,224,228,232,236,241,245,249,253,257,261,266,271,275,279,283,287,292,296,300,309,314,318,322,327,331,335,339,343,348,353,358,362,366,370,375,379,383,388,392,396,400,404,409,413,418,422,426,430,435,439,443,448,452,456,460,464,469,473,477,482,486,490,494,498,499,503,507,511,516,520,524,528,533,537,541,545,550,554,558,562,566,571,575,579,583,587,592,596,603,609,614,619,624,629,634,639,644,649,654,660],{"id":194,"path":195,"title":196,"date":197,"tags":184,"group":198,"lastmod":184,"author":199,"sort":184},"content/post/nezus/2026/07/2026-7-16.md","/post/nezus/2026/07/2026-7-16","2026年7月16日下午，台积电法说会上传出一个数字，让全球半导体圈炸了锅。","2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","#202607AI资讯","storytelling",{"id":201,"path":202,"title":203,"date":197,"tags":184,"group":198,"lastmod":184,"author":199,"sort":184},"content/post/nezus/2026/07/anthropic-ai.md","/post/nezus/2026/07/anthropic-ai","一个周末干掉四年：Anthropic 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把你的仓库打包上传了",{"id":254,"path":255,"title":252,"date":256,"tags":184,"group":198,"lastmod":184,"author":199,"sort":184},"content/post/nezus/2026/07/grok-cli-bug-done-xai.md","/post/nezus/2026/07/grok-cli-bug-done-xai","2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z",{"id":258,"path":259,"title":260,"date":256,"tags":184,"group":198,"lastmod":184,"author":199,"sort":184},"content/post/nezus/2026/07/seedream-5-0-ai.md","/post/nezus/2026/07/seedream-5-0-ai","字节跳动Seedream 5.0：圈一下图片就改了，AI修图进入点选时代",{"id":262,"path":263,"title":264,"date":265,"tags":184,"group":198,"lastmod":184,"author":199,"sort":184},"content/post/nezus/2026/07/post-20260712-ddc9a8.md","/post/nezus/2026/07/post-20260712-ddc9a8","欧盟强推Chat Control 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